Golden State securities issued June 12 Investment Report, on the 11th for the General Administration of Customs released 5 months prior to the import and export of China's foreign trade situation, the future export growth will gradually pick-up.
May 2009 China's exports dropped 26.4 percent year-on-year growth rate 3.8 percentage point decline the previous month; imports fell 25.2 percent year-on-year growth rate fell 2.2 percentage points over the previous month; month surplus of 13.389 billion U.S. dollars, a slight increase of 254 million the previous month the United States million.
State Securities pointed out that the Dragon Boat Festival holiday this year in May, and June last year, leading to reduced working days in May of this year 2 days, to a certain extent the decline in imports and exports increased. Imports and exports due to the lack of daily data, the Gold Dragon Boat Festival securities can not accurately measure the impact. Reference to the revised Customs data, seasonally adjusted exports fell 22.8 percent, while imports dropped 17.7 percent year-on-year. From this data, a slight decrease in the export drop the previous month, import growth has picked up greatly, which should be more in line with the intuitive situation. Because a strong domestic investment, industrial production recovery, the import growth rate of recovery should be greater.
On imports, and exports remain weak continuation of the pattern, seasonally adjusted data are more pronounced. This reflects the Chinese economy "strong domestic demand and weak external demand," the pattern, the gold stock were expected to continue this pattern, the level of surplus will remain relatively low.
Although some fluctuations, the export of consumer goods is still less than industrial decline, showing better stability. In addition, from the industrial production and retail, as well as two engines of the world economy - China and the U.S. - look at the future, the world economy will pick up gradually.
The short term, the impact of displacement by the Dragon Boat Festival, in June the rate of negative growth in exports would be narrowed. The world after the impact of an economic upturn, the National Securities believes that China's exports may continue to turn for the better. Retail recovery as a result of the developed countries than in industrial production, and exports of consumer goods will be expected to have better performance. |
